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argue 33 첨삭 부탁드립니다. ^^

lgk1003 | 조회 465 | 추천 0
  • 2016.08.20
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■ Direction You have 20 minutes to plan and write your response. You response will be judge on the basis of The quality of writing and on how well your response presents the points in the lecture and the relationship to the reading passage. Typically, an effective response will be 150 to 225 words.
■ Question Summarize the points made in the lecture you just heard, explaining how they cast doubt on the points made in the reading


▶ Topic : The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
    "Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase-and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary."

    Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

▶ Your Answer :

    In this memorandum, the author argues that construction of new generating plants will not be necessary. Although the argument may seem convincing at first, the unsubstantiated assumptions lead me to conclude that the argument is flawed on many grounds.

    First, the author assumes that the survey results can be taken at face value. It is plausible that the initial number of respondents of the survey is negligible. In this case, the survey results may be invalid. Even if the survey results is convincing, passive solar heating may not reduce the energy needed for home heating. It is possible that the area has bad weather during year, so solar heating may not be effective tool for home heating.

    Second, another assumption the author makes is that news technologies for home appliances and home insulation lead to decline the total demand for electricity. However, it is likely that other factors increase the demand for electricity. For example, many factories which consume significant amounts of energy may be constructed recently. In this case, the total demand for electricity in their areas may increase.

    Lastly, the author also assumes that the inherent conditions of past twenty years and those of future are similar. Because of long economic stagnation, it is possible that the consumption of electricity may decline during past twenty years. If economic growth is improved, the consumption of electricity may soar in the future. Also, the author cannot jump to the conclusion that construction more generating plants is unnecessary because of past trends of the demand of electricity. It is plausible that natural disasters that affect operation of generating plants are often caused in their areas, so more generating plants are needed to cope with natural disasters.
    In conclusion, the argument is unsound on many grounds. In order to bolster the argument, the author should confirm the validity of the survey results and get rid of other factors can affect the total demand of electricity.
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