|▶ Your Answer :|
In this memorandum, the author argues that
construction of new generating plants will not be necessary. Although the
argument may seem convincing at first, the unsubstantiated assumptions lead me
to conclude that the argument is flawed on many grounds.
the author assumes that the survey results can be taken at face value. It is
plausible that the initial number of respondents of the survey is negligible. In
this case, the survey results may be invalid. Even if the survey results is
convincing, passive solar heating may not reduce the energy needed for home
heating. It is possible that the area has bad weather during year, so solar
heating may not be effective tool for home heating.
another assumption the author makes is that news technologies for home
appliances and home insulation lead to decline the total demand for
electricity. However, it is likely that other factors increase the demand for
electricity. For example, many factories which consume significant amounts of
energy may be constructed recently. In this case, the total demand for
electricity in their areas may increase.
the author also assumes that the inherent conditions of past twenty years and
those of future are similar. Because of long economic stagnation, it is
possible that the consumption of electricity may decline during past twenty
years. If economic growth is improved, the consumption of electricity may soar
in the future. Also, the author cannot jump to the conclusion that construction
more generating plants is unnecessary because of past trends of the demand of electricity.
It is plausible that natural disasters that affect operation of generating
plants are often caused in their areas, so more generating plants are needed to
cope with natural disasters.
conclusion, the argument is unsound on many grounds. In order to bolster the
argument, the author should confirm the validity of the survey results and get
rid of other factors can affect the total demand of electricity.